Sunday, August 12, 2007

Trading Signals of Moving Averages

Single moving averages are frequently used as price and time filters. As a price filter, a short-term moving average has to be cleared by the currency closing price, the entire daily range, or a certain percentage (chosen at the discretion of the trader).

The envelope model (See Figure MA4) serves as a price filter. It consists of a short-term (perhaps 5-day) closing price based moving average to which a small percentage (2 percent is suggested for foreign currencies.) are added and substracted. The two winding parallel lines above and below the moving average will create a band bordering most price fluctuations. When the upper band is penetrated, a selling signal occurs. When the lower band is penetrated, a buying signal occurs. Because the signals generated by the envelope model are very short-term and they occur many times against the ongoing direction of the market, speed of execution is paramount. The high-low band is set up the same way, except that the moving average is based on the high and low prices. As a time filter, a short number of days may be used to avoid any false signals.



Figure MA4. An envelope model define the edges of the band. A close above the upper band sends a buying signal and one below the lower band gives a selling signal


Usually traders choose a number of averages to use with a currency. A suggested number is three, as more signals may be available. It may be helpful to use intervals that better encompass short-term, medium-term, and long-term periods, to arrive at a more complex set of signals. Some of the more popular periods are 4, 9, and 18 days; 5, 20, and 60 days; and 7, 21, and 90 days. Unless you focus on a specific combination of moving averages (for instance, 4, 9, and 18 days), the exact number of days for each of the averages is less important, as long as they are spaced far enough apart from each other to avoid insignificant signals.

A buying signal on a two-moving average combination occurs when the shorter term of two consecutive averages intersects the longer one upward. A selling signal occurs when the reverse happens, and the longer of two consecutive averages intersects the shorter one downward.




5 comments:

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